Catch Up and Overtake: The Martingale Chase in Sports Betting

Catch Up and Overtake: The Martingale Chase in Sports Betting

The "chase" (or dogon) is a finance betting system. It is a form of the Martingale method (French martingale), originally devised for even-chance bets in casinos (red/black in roulette). The idea is that after every loss, the stake is doubled on the next bet so that one eventual win recovers all the preceding losses and results in profit as well. For those players looking for different strategies, fantasy betting sites can also provide a glimpse into alternative methods of handling bets.

At sports betting, the player "chases" a certain outcome—quite often with relatively high odds, i.e., a draw in football—staking enough on each successive bet to cover previous losses and still win. The chase is one of the most popular and prevalent systems among amateur punters, but professionals use it very rarely and, if at all, only in its mildest version.

Overall, the chase is a bankroll management technique founded on continually increasing the stake until the player emerges a winner. 

The Theory Behind the Chase

As explained, the system was originally formulated for casino play. It works as follows: if, for example, a player bets on "red" at roulette and loses, the second bet (or "step") must be doubled to replace that loss and still result in a profit. If that also loses, the bet is doubled again. The sequence would be 1–2–4, with each subsequent stake calculated to replace former losses and result in the profit of the initial stake.

When betting at odds of 2.00, the payout is always equal to the size of the starting (minimum) bet. 

Of course, there is no guarantee that "red" will be drawn after three blacks in a row—or indeed after 7, 8, or 10. Each spin is completely independent of those that have passed before. The longest official run of one color being drawn consecutively in roulette is 32 times. Imagine how much you’d have to risk just to win a single unit at the end of such a run. This is where the concept of variance comes into play. Over a very long sequence, red and black will appear roughly equally often according to the Law of large numbers, but in the short term, big streaks and distortions are inevitable.

And let's not forget the house edge: because of the existence of the zero pocket, the odds aren't a genuine 50/50 situation. In the long run, roulette is always a negative expectation for the player. It is possible to win in the short term through luck, but the house edge gives the casino its constant profit.

However, the Martingale pursuit is a progressive system for short-term winnings. Few players think about what will happen after a hundred—or, even worse, a thousand—bets. In sports betting, you don't have to necessarily double stakes. You can "pursue" any odds: 1.3 (so-called "soft pursuit"), 5, or even 10. The following formula is applied to the calculation of the stake for each step:

S = (W + L) / (C – 1)

Where:

The theory is simple: you only need one winning bet (whether it's the first, the third, or the ninth) to be in profit. The result depends solely on how large your bankroll is and how many steps it can withstand.

Where It's Used: Chase Markets

The chase can be utilized in just about any sport, as it's more of a money management system. The theory is to keep betting on a specific result until it occurs. Possibilities are limitless, but the classic chase will bet on results that "have to" occur sooner or later.

Pros and Cons: Is It Worth It?

Theoretically, the chase is unbeatable—given unlimited funds and an infinite number of bets, you’ll eventually win. But that’s only theory.

Practically, players reach bookmaker limits, or, more likely, their own mental limits. By the time the stakes are gigantic, few people are prepared to risk gigantic amounts simply to win a modest profit originally associated with the opening bet. And most players don't even have the bankroll for long sequences—they run out of funds after just a few iterations.

This is the terrible flaw of progressive methods: the bankroll can be depleted in just a few bets. Unlike with flat staking, where risks are shared evenly, the chase maximizes losses.

Main disadvantages of the chase:

For example, suppose your chase is five steps: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 units. After some play, you’ll notice something like this: 100 bets on the first step, 50 on the second, 20 on the third, 10 on the fourth, and only 5 on the fifth. The overall financial outcome depends heavily on the results of the last steps, which occur less frequently. In other words, the success of your entire 200-bet sequence may hinge on just 5 bets—hardly a reliable system.

The Bottom Line

The only upside of the chase is that it can keep you in the black for a little while, as long as you win one bet out of several. Eventually, though, you'll hit a streak where not one of ten bets pays off, and your bankroll won't survive to the eleventh. You may be rescued by chance in the short term, but over the long term, losses are inevitable.

In fact, the chase has a single "benefit" over conventional bankroll management:

No money management scheme guarantees profits. At best, it delays losses until your actual edge (or lack thereof) expresses itself in the long run. If you have no advantage versus the bookie, then chasing will not help. It will only postpone the inevitable—and not necessarily for very long.

For serious long-term betting, the chase is unsuitable—it's a luck, not logical, approach. That said, if you want to have a go, win in the short term, and don't object to plenty of risk, then the chase might suit you. In either case, try it on paper first before you bet with actual money—you'll discover plenty about just how risky this system is.